Delusional

I couldn't help but snicker reading this editorial in the Michigan Daily. In it, Alex Prasad laments the opportunities Palin missed at the vice-presidential debate:

For example, Biden, speaking of Vice President Dick Cheney, said, “The idea
(Cheney) doesn't realize that Article I of the Constitution defines the role of
the vice president of the United States, that's the executive branch.”

Palin easily could have retorted, “Actually Joe, Article I of the
Constitution discussed legislative power. Ya know, it’s disappointing that a
sitting senator doesn’t even know the Constitution he’s sworn to protect. The
American people need somebody who is intimately familiar with the
Constitution.”

Seriously? Do you really think Sarah Palin is "intimately familiar with the Constitution"? Do you think someone who can't even remember what publications she reads knows which article of the constitution refers to what? Does it seem like Palin would say anything in that above statement besides "Actually Joe" and "Ya know"? Prasad continues:

The moderator, Gwen Ifill, asked Biden if Americans have the stomach for all
the intervention he has proposed over the years, citing his calls for
intervention in Bosnia, Iraq, Pakistan and Sudan. Biden responded, “I think the
American public has the stomach for success. My recommendations on Bosnia …
saved tens of thousands of lives … (and) the end result was it worked.”

[....Palin] should have answered as follows: “Ya know, let’s talk about
success senator. Certainly, I can’t match your long record in the realm of
foreign policy. But, I don’t think the American people — those Main Streeters —
just want experience. They want good Main Street judgment. You cite Bosnia as a success, yet 13 years after the initial conflict, we still have 10,000 troops
there. You were one of the few opposed the first Gulf War, saying thousands of
U.S. soldiers would die. In fact, only 293 did in an overwhelming victory. Your
maverick opposition was irresponsible.

In addition to the fact that Palin again probably does not know these things, I fail to see how these points will help her win the debate. How can you criticize Biden for supporting something that resulted in 10,000 troops staying in Bosnia for 13 years when McCain wants troops to stay in Iraq for 100 years?* If our victory in the first Gulf War was so overwhelming, why was it necessary to go to war with Iraq again just 12 years later? And you're really going to criticize someone who is not John McCain for being an irresponsible maverick? Yeah, that's a good idea.

Despite the hopes of the Obama campaign and many liberals, electoral defeat
may just be the thing that reignites the conservative base. Democrats better
hope that Republicans don’t find the second coming of Ronald Reagan by 2012, or
conservatives will again unite behind a presidential candidate.

Wow. Are conservatives really that relentlessly optimistic/out of touch with reality? Maybe I'm wrong here, maybe I'm the one being overly optimistic, but it seems to me that we're in the middle of a paradigm shift. The pendulum is swinging leftward. Americans are tired of the excesses of conservatism and the Bush administration: deregulation, wars without provocation, living without a safety net, ignoring our civil liberties, corruption, etc. This is not to say that liberals cannot be guilty of their own excesses; indeed, Americans upset with Great Society, Vietnam, the Chicago protests, race riots, and the Iranian hostage crisis deserted Johnson, Humphrey, and Carter and turned to Nixon and then Reagan. We've been living in a conservative age ever since. Until now.

*NOTE: McCain does not want to see American troops fighting in Iraq for a century like the Obama campaign might want you to think. McCain wants the U.S. to establish a peacetime presence there as in Germany or South Korea or Bosnia. Permanent bases in Iraq are still a bad idea, though.

SNL Says it All

SNL says it all when it comes to this election season's Vice Presidential candidates.

To see the newest skit, check this out from this past Saturday.


For the real deal, you can view the entire debate as well as the Associated Press' Fact Check by clicking here.

Vice Presidential Debate, AP Fact Check

On Thursday, October 2, 2008, the first and only vice presidential candidate debate was held. Below is the article from the Associated Press fact-checking statements made by the candidates. You can also watch the full footage of the debate, courtesy of CSPAN.

Some facts adrift in veep debate

By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Republican Sarah Palin criticized a version of a Barack Obama health care plan that doesn't exist and Democrat Joe Biden clung to a misleading charge about Republicans and big oil when the two clashed in the vice presidential debate Thursday.

Some examples of facts cast adrift in the debate:

PALIN: Said of Democratic presidential candidate Obama: "94 times he voted to increase taxes or not support a tax reduction."

THE FACTS: The dubious count includes repetitive votes as well as votes to cut taxes for the middle class while raising them on the rich. An analysis by factcheck.org found that 23 of the votes were for measures that would have produced no tax increase at all, seven were in favor of measures that would have lowered taxes for many, 11 would have increased taxes on only those making more than $1 million a year.

___

BIDEN: Complained about "economic policies of the last eight years" that led to "excessive deregulation."

THE FACTS: Biden voted for 1999 deregulation that liberal groups are blaming for part of the financial crisis today. The law allowed Wall Street investment banks to create the kind of mortgage-related securities at the core of the problem now. The law was widely backed by Republicans as well as by Democratic President Clinton, who argues it has stopped the crisis today from being worse.

___

PALIN: Criticized Obama's "plan to mandate health care coverage and have universal government run program" for health care, and added: "I don't think it's going to be real pleasing for Americans to consider health care being taken over by the Feds."

THE FACTS: Wrong on several counts. Obama's plan does not provide for universal coverage, only mandates insurance for children and doesn't turn the system over to the government. Most people would still get private insurance through their work. Obama proposes that the government subsidize the cost of health coverage for millions who have trouble affording it and he'd set up an exchange to negotiate prices and benefits with private insurers — with one option being a government-run plan.

___

BIDEN: Warned that Republican presidential candidate John McCain's $5,000 tax credit to help families buy health coverage "will go straight to the insurance company."

THE FACTS: That's not surprising — the money is meant to pay for health insurance. The Obama campaign tried to capitalize on the candidates' health care exchange by issuing an ad Friday contending that the Republicans can't explain "the McCain health tax."

___

PALIN: "Two years ago, remember, it was John McCain who pushed so hard with the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform measures. He sounded that warning bell."

THE FACTS: Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska led an effort in 2005 to tighten regulation on the mortgage underwriters — McCain joined as a co-sponsor a year later. The legislation was never taken up by the full Senate, then under Republican control.

___

BIDEN: Said McCain supports tax breaks for oil companies, and "wants to give them another $4 billion tax cut."

THE FACTS: Biden is repeating a favorite saw of the Obama campaign, and it's misleading. McCain supports a cut in income taxes for all corporations, and doesn't single out any one industry for that benefit.

___

PALIN: Said the United States has reduced its troop level in Iraq to a number below where it was when the troop increase began in early 2007.

THE FACTS: Not correct. The Pentagon says there are currently 152,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, about 17,000 more than there were before the 2007 military buildup began.

___

BIDEN: "As a matter of fact, John recently wrote an article in a major magazine saying that he wants to do for the health care industry — deregulate it and let the free market move — like he did for the banking industry."

THE FACTS: Biden and Obama have been perpetuating this distortion of what McCain wrote in an article for the American Academy of Actuaries. McCain, laying out his health plan, only referred to deregulation when saying people should be allowed to buy health insurance across state lines. In that context, he wrote: "Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."

___

PALIN: Said Alaska is "building a nearly $40 billion natural gas pipeline, which is North America's largest and most expensive infrastructure project ever to flow those sources of energy into hungry markets."

THE FACTS: Not quite. Construction is at least six years away. So far the state has only awarded a license to Trans Canada Corp., that comes with $500 million in seed money in exchange for commitments toward a lengthy and costly process to getting a federal certificate. At an August news conference after the state Legislature approved the license, Palin said, "It's not a done deal."

___

PALIN: "Barack Obama even supported increasing taxes as late as last year for those families making only $42,000 a year."

BIDEN: "The charge is absolutely not true. Barack Obama did not vote to raise taxes."

THE FACTS: The vote was on a nonbinding budget resolution that assumed that President Bush's tax cuts would expire, as scheduled, in 2011. If that actually happened, it could mean higher taxes for people making as little as about $42,000. But Obama is proposing tax increases only on the wealthy, and would cut taxes for most others.

___

PALIN: Said a McCain-Palin administration "will support Israel," including "building our embassy ... in Jerusalem."

THE FACTS: Moving the U.S. Embassy from its present location in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is a perennial promise of presidential candidates courting the Jewish-American vote. In fact, moving the embassy is actually required by U.S. law. But successive administrations of both parties, including George W. Bush's, have made the same pledge only to find that the realities of Middle East peacemaking have forced them to invoke a waiver to delay it. Jerusalem is claimed as a capital by both Israelis and the Palestinians and Israel's occupation of east Jerusalem is not internationally recognized. The city's status is one of the key issues of disagreement in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Obama Picks Biden

I didn't do too bad. I ranked Joe Biden fifth out of Obama's top ten veep choices back in June, but I rated him most highly of the three contenders receiving the most coverage as of late (Biden, Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine).

And of those three, not only did I think it most likely Obama would choose Biden, but I also personally liked Biden the most. Unlike the bland Evan Bayh, Biden is a dynamic politician who has spent over 30 years in the Senate and can serve as an adept attack dog against John McCain. And unlike Governor Kaine, Biden, currently the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will add experience to the argument that Obama is better on foreign policy. And now the silly, rampant media speculation can end.

The only problem is Biden's comments before the primaries, saying that Obama was too inexperienced. The McCain campaign has already put up an ad to that effect:

But I'm sure McCain won't show you Biden's more recent comments on Obama...

...and on McCain:

Biden called me in June to express his amazement that McCain continued to insist that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the leader of Iran, even after I pointed out--during a press conference--that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei controlled Iran's foreign policy and nuclear program. McCain's response was that the "average American" thought Ahmadinejad was Iran's leader...and Biden proceeded to jump all over that in a subsequent interview with Think Progress:

I don’t want an average American as president. I have great respect for average — average Americans don’t want an average American president of the United States of America. I want someone above average. I want someone who knows what they’re dealing with. And it surprises me that John didn’t understand the complexities of the power struggle going on in Iran right now.

Biden told me that he was amazed and disappointed by the changes in McCain during the course of the campaign. "I just don't recognize the guy anymore," he said. "It's a shame."

Obama and Biden appeared for the first time together in Springfield, Illinois, today. You can read the transcript of Obama's speech here.

The Veep Search, Pt. 2: Obama

And now for Obama. His Top Ten:

Hillary Clinton

Senator Hillary Clinton is the veep nominee with the most vocal supporters...and the most vocal detractors. Choosing Clinton would unite the party, help heal the wounds of a long primary season, and could stave off a flow of Clinton supporters to McCain. But perhaps choosing a former Clinton supporter would do the same thing, and the defectors will likely cool off and return to Obama regardless. Hillary's experience might not mesh well with Obama's change message, but this is a spin problem that can be easily circumvented. Hillary comes with Bill, a brilliant strategist (that Obama's campaign was nonetheless able to outwit), and choosing Hillary will associate Obama with Bill's presidency, for better (relative peace and economic prosperity) or worse (Scandal!). In my opinion, Sen. Clinton has definitely earned a consideration after her primary performance, and she would make a great VP and a good nominee as long as she and Bill can diminish their own egos and content themselves with playing second fiddle. (Chances: 2%) [Add'l. Reading: Salon's flip sides of the same coin--Heads & Tails.] UPDATE: Obama named Patti Solis Doyle to be chief of staff for his running mate. This is significant because she was unceremoniously let go from the Clinton campaign in February. Not a good sign for Hillary's chances.

Bill Richardson

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson would be a nice choice for VP. He has executive and foreign policy experience; he has been governor for five years and was Ambassador to the UN before that. He could draw many Latinos--who overwhelmingly supported Hillary--to Obama and could turn New Mexico blue. Although hardly an exciting candidate during the primaries, Richardson could do much to beef up the ticket. (Chances: 20%) [Add'l Reading: Wikipedia]

Kathleen Sebelius

Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) would be a fairly good fit as Obama's running mate. She has clear administrative capability; as Kansas's insurance commissioner, she made a slightly controversial decision by nixing a proposal by an Indiana-based insurance provider to buy Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas, while she was also running for governor. She has a history of reaching across party lines. She could turn Kansas blue and help draw female supporters to Obama, if they don't perceive it as a slap in the face to Hillary. She is little known outside of Kansas; indeed, what I knew about her prior to researching this was Jon Stewart's lampooning her State of the Union response as "flat and boring." Sebelius also has little foreign policy experience, although she has travelled to the Middle and Far East as governor. However, her weakness are slight relative to her strengths. (Chances: 16%) [Add'l Reading: The Fix likes coins too! Heads or Tails?]

Wesley Clark

Retired General Wesley Clark has a long list of military credentials--first in his class at West Point (where he later taught), Rhodes scholar, various command posts, culminating in the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO during the operations in Kosovo--that would serve Obama well. Only two minor drawbacks: (1) WaPo reminds us that he has never held an elected office, and is this not particularly adept at political maneuvering. (2) As an early Hillary supporter, he criticized Obama's lack of experience. But Clark is the safest foreign-policy choice and would attract plenty of blue-collar voters. (Chances: 15%)

Jim Webb

Many are excited about the possibility of Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) as VP. Like Obama, he's been against the Iraq War from the beginning, and he predicted a difficult insurgency when the war had just started. He wrote another Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal reminiscent of John Edwards' Two Americas. He recently proposed a new GI Bill of Rights that would have increased college benefits for returning veterans. He is a pro-gun Democrat, a plain-spoken, decorated veteran from Virginia, a red state growing increasingly bluer. But his plain speaking has a tendency of getting him in trouble. While teaching at Annapolis in 1979, he wrote an article entitled "Women Can't Fight," although he was endorsed by nine female soldiers in the 2006 Senate race. Some have inferred a glorification of violence and the Confederacy from his books. But perhaps the biggest problem is that he seems uninterested in the job and content with his Senate seat. (Chances: 12%) [Add'l Reading: Wikipedia]

Joe Biden

Senator Joe Biden (D-DE), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, would bring some serious foreign policy cred to the table. In 2002, he tried to pass a resolution that would have ensured that President Bush exhausted all the diplomatic means of dealing with Iraq before going to war. Born in Scranton, Biden could help Obama take Pennsylvania. However, his son is a lobbyist, and he got into trouble on the campaign trail for calling Obama "articulate." However, I think these flaws are forgivable/negligible in light of his strengths. (Chances: 9%) [Add'l Reading: Wikipedia, The Washington Post]

Tim Kaine

Current Virginia Governor Tim Kaine could help Obama with two constituencies. As a popular, moderate governor, Kaine could deliver the now purplish Virginia to the Democrats in November. He is a Catholic--he even took a year off from Harvard Law to go on a mission trip to Honduras and can speak fluent Spanish--and he could help draw Catholic voters, who largely supported Clinton in the primaries, to Obama. His centrism and eloquence would work well with Obama, their mothers were both born in the same Kansas town and Kaine was the first governor outside of Illinois to endorse Obama. The only drawback is that he too lacks foreign policy experience. (Chances: 6%) [Add'l Reading: The Boston Globe]

John Edwards

A lot of people, including Mrs. Wolverine, would like Obama to pick former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. During the primaries, Edwards seemed closer to Obama than to Hillary, and most Obama supporters liked Edwards. Many in the media have discounted him because he seemed to be of little electoral help as Kerry's running mate in 2004. But Obama is not Kerry. The biggest sticking point is that it is difficult to tell whether Edwards wants to be VP or wants a nice Cabinet post or maybe just wants a jet ski. (Chances: 5%)

Ed Rendell

Pennsylvania Governor and former Clinton supporter Ed Rendell accused the press of drinking the Obama Kool-Aid before the Pennsylvania primary. Now he says he's drunk some himself. As a former Hillary supporter, Rendell would make a nice unity ticket, and his support will help Obama win Pennsylvania. However, he does nothing to shore up Obama's foreign policy credentials. (Chances: 3%)

Evan Bayh

As one of the most popular Democrats in Indiana's history, Senator Birch Evans Bayh (D-IN) could deliver the right-leaning state's 11 electoral votes to Obama as his vice presidential nominee. Bayh was a two-term governor and served on the Senate Committees on the Armed Forces and Intelligence; he has executive and foreign-policy experience. As a Clinton supporter, Bayh could possibly unite the Democrats if chosen. He is a fiscally responsible, moderate New Democrat in the style of Bill Clinton, but without the scandals. He has been characterized as "bland," but this could simply complement Obama's soaring rhetoric. (Chances: 1%) [Add'l Reading: Wikipedia, The Indianapolis Star]

Honorable Mention:

Former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia has worked tirelessly to limit the proliferation of WMDs, would give Obama much foreign policy cred, and could put Georgia into play. However, he has been out of the political arena for 12 years and was a fairly conservative Democrat when he was in it.

Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano has been mentioned, but Sebelius seems the stronger female candidate. More importantly, selecting her for VP is unlikely to take away Arizona from McCain--it's his home state too--and, most importantly, would force her to resign her governorship under Arizona law, which would mean that the Secretary of State, Republican Jan Brewer, would take her office.

Mark Warner, the third Virginian, is the state's former governor and is running for the Senate. Which is why he won't be Obama's VP. He's ahead of Republican Jim Gilmore, another former governor, in the polls and Democrats would like to take that Senate seat in the fall.

Former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) has been suggested, but seriously? Sure he's been a co-chair of Obama's campaign, but he lost his Senate seat in 2004, the first party leader to lose their seat since the 50's, and since then has been working for a law/lobbying firm in D.C. He's too much of an insider for Obama's change campaign.

And you thought Hillary was the only unity ticket. Outspoken Iraq critic Chuck Hagel (R, yes R-NE) has been mentioned, and if Obama were to select a Republican, it would be him. And Hagel would consider if selected. But in the end, he is a Republican with conservative stances on most issues and would be out of place. Don't rule out a Cabinet post though.

Additional Reading

CNN & Deborah White

The Veep Search, Pt. 1: McCain

It's only fair: John McCain became the presumptive Republican nominee long before Barack Obama wrested the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton's cold, dead hands. Or something like that. McCain's Pick-Six:

Charlie Crist

Current Florida Governor Charlie Crist's centrism would mesh well with McCain's. Crist has been called that state's first black governor, was the first Republican governor to attend the NAACP's state convention, and worked to limit disenfranchisement of black voters. As state AG, he refused to continue government intervention in the Terry Schiavo case. He has proposed limits on greenhouse-gas emissions. He is popular in Florida, his endorsement of McCain helped him win the Florida primary, and Crist would help McCain carry the state in the general. He is relatively youthful, but his inexperience would make it difficult for McCain to levy the same argument against Obama. Also, rumors and controversies that first appeared in the 2006 gubernatorial election would re-rear their ugly heads in a national contest. The bachelor governor has been accused of being homosexual and fathering an illegitimate child. He also drew fire for accepting the support of Rev. O'Neal Dozier who called Islam a "dangerous" "cult" and opposed the construction of a mosque because he didn't "want a breeding ground for terrorists" in Broward County. However, illegitimate-child rumors and guilt-by-association controversies have a definitively McCainian ring to them. (Probability: 32%) [Sources: Wikipedia, The Sarasota Herald-Tribune]

Bobby Jindal

As the son of Punjabi immigrants, Louisiana Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal is not your stereotypical Republican. At age 37, he is the country's youngest (can also be read most inexperienced) serving governor. As governor, he passed a rigorous ethics bill—a favorite McCain theme—in an historically corrupt state. When he became the state's Secretary of Health and Hospitals in 1996, he inherited a bankrupt Medicaid program that had a $400 million deficit; he balanced the budget and raked in $220 million in surpluses over three years. Although his background may help draw traditionally non-Republican voters to McCain, Jindal is a staunch conservative. He has an 100% pro-life voting record according to the National Right to Life Committee, an A rating from the Gun Owners of America, and some of the lowest ratings among conservation groups. As a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Jindal voted to make the Patriot Act permanent, sponsored a bill that would end the moratorium on offshore drilling, and supported a constitutional amendment that would ban flag burning. In short, Jindal might help McCain with both moderate independents and the Republicans' conservative base. (Probability: 32%) [Sources: Wikipedia, The Telegraph, The American Prospect]

Lindsey Graham

The senior senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, has been a longtime friend and associate of McCain and is currently his campaign co-chair. Like McCain, he has a reputation of not toeing the party line. His support for a 2007 bill that would have provided illegal immigrants a path to citizenship is providing fodder for Buddy Witherspoon, his challenger in South Carolina's Republican primary, and has been lampooned by Rush Limbaugh as "Grahamnesty." In 2005, he was part of the Gang of 14 that ended the standoff between Democrats and Republicans over judicial nominees and the use of the filibuster. Graham attended the Great Memorial Day Weekend Veep Meet, which Crist and Jindal also attended, although he was not mentioned as a potential running mate as much as a confidant whose opinion McCain seeks and trusts. Maybe Graham would prefer to keep his Senate seat, but that trust sounds like something McCain would want in his VP. (Probability: 16%) [Sources: Wikipedia, The Associated Press]

Mike Huckabee

Mike Huckabee's campaign for the Republican nomination showcased his talents and his weaknesses. He is an evangelical and a former pastor, and his policies as Arkansas governor exemplified what Christianity is supposed to be all about. He sought to give the children of illegal immigrants financial aid to in-state colleges, waived state restrictions to accommodate Katrina evacuees, and signed the ARKids First program into law, reducing the number of children without health insurance in the state. He is known for his charm and his wit; after moving into a mobile home while the Governor's Mansion was being renovated, he joked with Jay Leno that it wasn't a trailer, it was "a triple wide" and that it "was big enough for [Leno's] chin." He even plays bass guitar in the band Capital Offense. But he is unschooled in foreign policy and his ignorance gets him into trouble. During the campaign, he wondered if Mormons thought Jesus and Satan were brothers and claimed that there are more illegal immigrants from Pakistan than from any other country except Mexico. But Huckabee could help McCain with economic policy and with evangelicals, and his recent reminder in New Hampshire that he didn't attack McCain in the primaries shows that he's interested in the job. (Probability: 12%) [Sources: Wikipedia]

Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty has been an outspoken supporter of McCain and is currently his campaign co-chairman. He is currently the governor of Minnesota and chairman of the National Governors Association. Before being elected governor, Pawlenty pledged not to raise taxes, a pledge he kept save a 75-cent "health impact fee" imposed on cigarettes. Thus, to balance the state's budget he relied on cutting state services and increasing fees. He sparred frequently with Democrats in the state legislature and is said to be Minnesota's most conservative governor since the 1920s. However, he has proposed a program that would pay for the first two years' tuition of the top quarter of students. He has promoted ethanol and the importation of prescription drugs from Canada before it was banned by the federal government in 2006. His chances of being picked are slim, however, as he is not well-known outside of Minnesota and is not incredibly popular inside Minnesota. He won the 2006 gubernatorial election by only 1% of the vote. (Probability: 4%) [Sources: Wikipedia, WaPo's The Fix]

Joseph Lieberman

Right-Wing Leftie has proposed that a McCain-Lieberman ticket would go a long way for national unity. To some extent, that's true. Senator Lieberman (I-CT) agrees with the Democrats on several issues—global warming, stem cells, gun control, affirmative action. However, he sides with Bush and McCain on one of the most important issues of this election: Iraq. A hawk ticket would probably not be popular nor would Lieberman's age (64) serve as a good complement to McCain's. Nominating an independent and former Democrat would not help McCain solidify the Republican base, although it would probably win McCain some votes from the Jewish community. I think it's politically too risky, and Lieberman could better help McCain doing what he's doing now, serving as McCain's attack dog. (Probability: 2%) [Sources: Wikipedia, MSNBC]

Honorable Mention:

Rob Portman, as a congressman from Ohio, could help boost McCain in that swing state. As a specialist in international trade, Portman could also give McCain some economic cred. However, Portman worked as director of the Office of Management and Budget under the Bush administration, and McCain does not need any more connections to Bush.

Mitt Romney was also invited to the GMDWVM, but experience from the Republican primaries/cauci suggests that Romney won't happen. Romney was almost universally hated by the other contenders, (Exhibit A: McCain throws his weight behind Huckabee so Romney loses in WV.) and he seemed to base his campaign on stereotypes. Going beyond his Who Let the Dogs Out? moment, he also seemed to assume that Republican voters were all racist chickenhawks. ("We should double Guantánamo"?)

Condi Rice, as a minority and a woman and with approval ratings better than both George W. Bush and Republicans in general, Rice has the potential to draw voters to McCain. One problem: she has repeatedly said that she is not interested in the job. Those who speculate she is interested—"She met with Grover Norquist!"—seem to be grasping at straws.

Haley Barbour, the current governor of Mississippi, has bona fide Republican credentials—he campaigned for Nixon and Ford and served as Reagan's political director—that could fire up the conservative base. However, he founded his own lobbying firm, and McCain recently purged his campaign of most lobbyists.

Additional Reading:

CNN, Reuters