Headlines: 31 July 2008

• Sexuality bias seen at Justice Department: Margaret Chiara, the U.S. Attorney in Grand Rapids, MI, was fired because of rumors that she was a lesbian.
• A Shiite Militia in Baghdad Sees Its Power Wane*: The Mahdi Army, led by Moqtada al-Sadr, has lost significant influence as PM Nouri al-Maliki asserts his legitimacy.
• The Kirkuk Impasse: Recent attacks in Kirkuk have exposed an underlying tension between the Kurds, Turks, and Arabs.
• Olmert to Quit After Elections in September*: The Israeli PM is resigning over corruption charges, but where does this leave negotiations with the Palestinians and Syria?
• China Angered by Lobbying on Rights*: China doesn't like the U.S. House of Representatives passing a resolution urging them to uphold their pledge to improve human rights before the Olympics. Maybe they should have thought about that before they broke it.
• Judge Rules White House Aides Can Be Subpoenaed*: Shocking.
• Sleazy Campaign Tactic of the Day: The head of the Virginia RNC is worried you might register to vote.
• The Recession Election: The pendulum swings left?

*Note: The New York Times may be changing their website, and you may have to register/login to see these articles.

Headlines: 23 April 2008

• Moqtada al-Sadr issues 'all-out war' ultimatum

• Sorry this article is a little old. Why are we walling off Sadr City anyways?

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• Petraeus to Be Nominated to Lead Central Command

• Because "staying [the] course is not a bad idea." Funny quote:

• Though the Central Command was created in 1983 to cover the "central" part of the globe between the European and Pacific Commands, according its Web site, its main headquarters is located not in its theater of operations, but rather in Tampa, Fla., at least in part because of the political sensitivity of basing it in the Mideast.

• You think?

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• $100 fill-ups arrive at gas pumps

• This Summer: $4/gallon: Coming to a gas station near you!

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• Sri Lanka suffers bloodiest clashes since 2006

• The minority Tamils want their own state; the majority Sinhalese government vowed to destroy the rebels before elections in May.

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• Violence mars Zimbabwe recount

• Robert Mugabe intimidates his political rivals as a recount determines which party controls Parliament. Zimbabwe, by the way, has the world's highest inflation rate, at an astounding 100,000%. And that's according to officials. The real rate might be higher.

Fear and Trembling

From Joe Klein:

[Attacking Moqtada al-Sadr] would have been extremely foolish. The U.S. would have been inserting itself into a part of Iraq that we don't know very well—the south—and taking sides against what is probably the most popular mass movement in Shi'ite Iraq. But the Petraeus battle plan apparently includes an anti-Sadrist move, which may mean a spurt of violence as widespread and vicious as the worst of the Sunni insurgency. Is that why the general wants a "pause" in the U.S. withdrawal this summer?

What could possibly be the rationale for this? Perhaps it is that Sadr's Mahdi Army is the most potent force opposed to long-term U.S. bases in Iraq—and that a permanent presence has been the Bush Administration's true goal in this war. I suspect the central question in Iraq now is not whether things will get better but whether the drive for a long-term, neocolonialist presence will make the situation irretrievably worse.

Rhetorical Question Answered

Yes. In sum, this is great news:

• Moqtada al-Sadr, who will probably play a significant role in the future of Iraq, has not only not lost political power, but has probably gained political capital. (Bad news for Maliki, who has been criticized alternatively for starting the assault or for failing to achieve his guarantee of a conclusive, military victory.)
• More importantly, it shows that the Iraqis can resolve at least some of their issues diplomatically instead of militarily, which should mean, if not for the incompetence of the Bush administration, that we can start getting the hell out.

Some Good News?

Moqtada al-Sadr is ordering his militiamen to stand down. Will they listen?

"I'm so worried about what's happened today in the Middle East, you know"

You know how the surge was supposed to foster a reconciliation among the Iraqis? Apparently, that didn't happen.

It's hard to make sense of everything, but this much is certain: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has launched an offensive against the Mahdi Army, a militia led by Moqtada al-Sadr, and is personally leading the troops in Basra. Both Sadr and Maliki are Shi'ites, but Sadr is popular among the urban poor, nationalistic, and opposed to foreign influence--whether the influence is American or Iranian. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's Badr Corps, allies of Maliki, are supported by both the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. has provided air cover for Maliki's forces.

From there, things get a little fuzzy: The New York Times paints a picture of limited U.S. and British involvement. The Times also seems to say that the Mahdi Army is upholding its end of a cease-fire agreement and that Iraqi forces are fighting splinter groups who are not controlled by al-Sadr. The Washington Post seems to think that the U.S. will involve itself (or is involved) more deeply in Basra than what the Times portrays. Also, the battle in Basra could last a good while. Meanwhile, Joe Klein's analysis is that American involvement is a bad idea: It will cause more American deaths, it could lead to Sadrist retaliations across Shi'ite Iraq, and it will not solve anything. Also, there's disagreement among officials both in the military and in intelligence about with whom we should have sided in the first place, if at all. Sadr, with his independent streak, could be the best hope for a stable Iraq. And we're launching air strikes at his followers.