Bomb Iran: Israeli Remix

"ISRAEL will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb." ~Benny Morris

The insanity over Iran continues. The argument over war makes at least two leaps of logic that Joe Klein brilliantly points out here: (1) that Iran would use a nuke against Israel immediately after acquiring one and (2) that diplomacy will not work. Their basic underlying assumption is that the leaders of Iran are batshit insane. True, President Ahmadenijad may say some crazy things, but the real power lies with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. So let's assume that he's somewhat rational:

(1) Iran has several good reasons not to nuke Israel. Fallout from a detonation within Israel would likely contaminate parts of surrounding Muslim nations--Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the Palestinian territories--and millions of fellow Muslims would be affected. A nuclear strike would destroy or contaminate the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the third-holiest Islamic site.

(2) Diplomacy and economic sanctions do have an effect against Iran according to the National Intelligence Estimate released last November.

War with Iran, conducted either by Israel or by the U.S., is not the answer. Innocent Iranians would die in an attack; one of the enrichment sites is in the middle of a city of more than one million. A pre-emptive strike would inflame Iranian public opinion against the striker, and bolster Iran's hardline regime. There's no way either nation could be sure that they've destroyed all of Iran's uranium-enrichment sites. Iran will accelerate their nuclear program, and would now have a good reason to use a nuclear weapon when they get one.