The Provocations of North Korea

On April 5, in a special birthday message to Mrs. Wolverine, North Korea launched a missile. The first stage of the rocket fell into the Sea of Japan; the rest flew over Honshu, Japan's main island, and crashed into the Pacific Ocean.

Japan, South Korea and the U.S. say the launch violates UN Security Council resolutions banning any ballistic missile activity from the North. China and Russia have urged caution and restraint.

The North Koreans claim that the rocket launched a satellite into orbit, which is now broadcasting patriotic songs from outer space. North Korea says they, like all other countries, have a right to use outer space for peaceful purposes, having joined the Convention on the Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space in March. The only problem? They have not registered the satellite, a tacit admission that the launch failed.

So what to make of this?

While conservatives have fulminated--John Bolton: "The missile launch is an unambiguous win for North Korea"; Newt Gingrich "would have disabled the long-range missile before North Korea was able to launch it"--the truth is that North Korea has a long way to go before they have a viable nuclear ICBM. They must develop (1) a stronger missile or a miniaturized warhead and (2) a re-entry system. Plus, the North Koreans tend to respond to a failure by restarting from scratch. (h/t)

In response to the Security Council's eventual condemnation of the launch, North Korea vowed to restart its nuclear program, eject IAEA inspectors, and boycott six-party talks. North Korea later said they would start a uranium enrichment program, in addition to their previous plutonium program.

So why the launch and the subsequent "diplomatic hissy fit"? Perhaps to gain leverage in international talks. Having long-range missile technology and a nuclear program (even if they are, shall we say, limited), the North Koreans enter negotiations in a position of strength, and the international community would have to grant more concessions to make them give up these things.

Another theory says that North Korea is acting for domestic reasons. After having a stroke in August, Kim Jong-Il is demonstrating North Korea's nuclear and missile technology to solidify his leadership and to secure a stable transfer of power to one of his sons.

Finally, what should be done? Probably work through China at first, leading to six-party talks then bilateral negotiations with the United States.