Egyptian Uprising

January 2011 passed by this year with the protests in Tunisia, which resulted in the removal of former Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Jordanian King Abdullah II dismissed Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet, replacing Rifai with ex-general and former premier Marouf al-Bakhit. There have also been protests in Yemen and several other Arab countries.

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Egypt has been engulfed with popular, peaceful protests. After police initially cracked down, the army refused to fire on the crowds. As seen in this article by The Atlantic, the activists are organized and have very clear objectives. Today, after millions gathered in Tahrir (Independence) Square in Cairo, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak announced that he will not be seeking re-election in September and wants a transition government. The Obama administration has stated that Egypt should begin its process of transitioning peacefully to a new government. However, Mubarak’s vow to not flee from Egypt and his failure to resign immediately are not sitting well with the Egyptian protesters. While his “transition” government has tried to make compromises and half-hearted attempts at dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood, they have still failed to meet the protesters’ demand of Mubarak’s resignation. The events have turned violent, with pro-Mubarak agitators assaulting the protesters. However, with the sheer number of demonstrators (estimates place the crowds around 2 million people), this is not an issue that will go away quickly or quietly.

For decades, Egypt under Mubarak has been an ally of the United States and a critical component of its Middle East foreign policy. The United States is now forced to re-evaluate its standing in the region, and in light of these developments, there are several questions as to what the Egyptian movement means for the future of Egypt and the Middle East. In understanding popular uprisings that ousted a dictator, several news media outlets and government officials are looking towards Iran as an example. Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton was especially provocative in drawing connections between the Egyptian uprisings, Iran, and U.S. interests. Being the Yosemite Sam of International Relations, Bolton stated in an interview with Sean Hannity of FOX News that “ouster of embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would speed the timetable for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.” Bolton has always been an “Iran hawk,” but these comments reveal a particularly interesting discussion regarding the Egyptian protests and their connection to 1979 and 2009 Iran.

With the anniversary of the 1979 revolution coming on February 11^th, the Islamic Regime has not wasted any time in attempting to spin the protests as a new, “Islamic” revolutions inspired by the 1979 Iranian revolution. Mir Hossein Mousavi and members of the Green Movement have instead countered such claims with their own that their 2009 protests are the inspiration for the Egyptian movement today. However, the Iranian regime’s severe crackdown on the Green Movement clearly reveals its own hypocrisy, reflected in the regime’s loss of soft power among Arab populations in the region.

With everyone in the United States scrambling to figure out which of the Iranian case studies is the best indicator for Egypt’s future, people forget that the Iranian and Egyptian case studies are completely different. Iran in 1979 had a series of very strong, well-known revolutionary leaders that were able to mobilize people over several years into what exploded in 1979 and forced Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi out of power for good. Of these revolutionary figures, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini emerged as the strongest and seized power, creating Iran’s theocratic republic of today. Unlike the Iranian example, there are no clear leaders in the Egyptian protests. While the Muslim Brotherhood is being incorporated at some level in talks with Mubarak’s regime, the Egyptian demonstrations were never about the Muslim Brotherhood.

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In 2009, while Mousavi, despite being prime minister throughout the 1980s under Khomeini and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emerged as the leader of the Green Movement, the regime’s brutal crackdown and retention of military, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, police, and Basiji militia support left the movement fractured and weakened. This is not to say that the regime does not feel threatened – the human rights situation in Iran has drastically declined since 2009 and in one month’s time (December 19, 2010, and January 19, 2011), Iran executed 97 prisoners alone. It also executes more people per capita than any other country in the world. Clearly, the regime does feel threatened, but until the Green Movement can garner support of the country’s different armed forces, it will not see results like Egypt’s. The Green Movement also had several different leaders, each with their own ideas. The result is a lack of unity and unclear goals. The Egyptian movement on the other hand is unified behind one strong resolution – Mubarak’s immediate resignation.

Egyptians have a new opportunity before them. With the continued pressure of protesters, the military, and the Obama administration that Mubarak faces calling for his immediate resignation, the Egyptians have the chance to peacefully and single-handedly remove a cruel dictator from power and replace his government with one that better reflects their own aspirations and visions for their country. While Iran and Egypt are very different, both the Iranian stories of 1979 and 2009 offer lessons for Egypt. In 1979, Iranians were successful in overthrowing a dictator. However, the complete destruction of the previous government’s institutions and allowing the movement to be dominated by clerical elements created a situation today where Iranians of all backgrounds lack significant social and political freedoms. In 2009, Iranians attempted to rise up to challenge the direction in which the hardliners were taking the country. However, the lack of unity in and failure to clearly articulate demands resulted in the movement succumbing to brutal crackdown after brutal crackdown and the protesters were unsuccessful. Egypt has the chance to avoid a takeover by radicals of any persuasion. They have the chance to be successful where the Iranians were to date unable. The Egyptians’ success to date is already an inspiration to the world. If the Egyptian movement is able to successfully gain the ouster of Mubarak and transition to a system of government that better reflects the wishes of the Egyptian people, it could be powerful enough to lead to a re-invigoration of pro-democracy movements throughout the Middle East.