The Conflict in Gaza

"We have to talk to the other side, we have to have peace, so that we can all - us and them - live safely."     ~Mirvat Abu Shwab, who lost two children in early 2008 as Israelis and Palestinians battled outside their home

Background

On June 19, 2008, a six-month cease-fire between Hamas and Israel went into effect. The cease-fire was never absolute; during the six months, rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel, and Israel conducted raids against Hamas and closed the border crossings into Gaza. But violence had decreased. 329 rockets and mortars were fired during the cease-fire, while 2278 were fired in the preceding six months.

Hamas decided not to renew the cease-fire after it expired on December 19. Fifty rockets were launched on December 21, followed by sixty more on Christmas Eve. The same day, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were authorized to attack Hamas in Gaza. Although at that time, "[m]ilitary sources said a major operation - such as conquering the Gaza Strip - was not currently on the agenda."

Operation Cast Lead

On December 27, the IDF began Operation Cast Lead, a series of air strikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. 225 were killed on the first day alone. On the 28th, the IDF began targeting tunnels that ran between Egypt and Gaza, which transported arms (and needed supplies due to the Israeli-imposed blockade) into Gaza. Civilians died from the beginning, and the IDF bombed a mosque, a refugee camp, the Islamic University at Tel al-Hawa, and the Education Ministry. (In the IDF's defense, the Islamic University is "one of the prime means for Hamas to convert Palestinians to its Islamist cause.")

Throughout the air strikes, Hamas continued to fire rockets, landing deeper into Israel than ever before. Rockets landed in Beersheba, 24 miles inside Israel, two days in a row. Anger in the Arab world rose not only against Israel, but also against Egypt, which had originally brokered the six-month truce and is not allowing refugees to escape from Gaza into Egypt. Hamas gunmen and Egyptian border guards have even exchanged gunfire. And the IDF massed troops along the Gazan border.

The Invasion

On January 3, Israeli troops entered the Gaza Strip. And whatever international support Israel had evaporated. There are those who turned against Israel for reasons of realpolitik. Says Joe Klein, who was initially very supportive of Israel's actions:

The more I think about it, the ground assault has the potential to be a...big mistake. It has made a symbolic defeat more possible, if still unlikely. If the IDF gets hung up in alley-fighting in Gaza City, with significant casualties--that will be seen as a defeat. If Hamas guerrilllas can kidnap or use suicide bombers to attack the IDF positions outside Gaza, that will also be seen as an indication of Israeli vulnerability. The problem is that the expectations for Hamas--which already has had its military capability smashed decisively, if truth be told--are so low.

And the New York Times divines that Israel's goal is to remove Hamas from power and is highly skeptical. What would be the human cost? Who would fill the power vacuum left behind? Neither Fatah, a more moderate Palestinian organization nominally in control of the West Bank, nor Israel could legitimately do so.

And then of course there is the moral outrage. Israel air-dropped leaflets that read:

Hamas is getting a taste of the power of the Israeli military after more than a week and we have other methods that are still harsher to deal with Hamas. They will prove very painful. For your safety, please evacuate your neighborhood.

Unfortunately, as many neighborhoods received the same message, residents had nowhere to go.

More evidence that Israel has acted terribly:

• A Norwegian doctor working in Gaza City reports women and children made up 25% of the death toll and 45% of the wounded.
• Ambulances and hospitals are being attacked, and on-duty paramedics are being killed. Hospitals in Gaza lack the most basic supplies.
• Israel is giving Gaza what they term "humanitarian respites," irregularly scheduled, three-hour suspensions in fighting every other day. (The same article reports that over 700 Palestinians, including 219 children, have been killed in the first eleven days of the assault.)
• A UN-run school was struck by Israeli artillery, killing 40 and wounding 55 more.
• The Vatican's peace and justice minister, Cardinal Renato Martino, said that Israel had turned the Gaza Strip into "a big concentration camp."
• The UN and the Red Cross had to scale back aid after their trucks were hit by Israeli fire.

The Future

As the Israeli assault seemed more reprehensible, international calls for a cease-fire, led by Egypt and France, increased. Israel wants an end to the rocket attacks and arms smuggling into Gaza. Hamas wants an end to the Israeli-imposed economic blockade. Israel has accepted this in principle, but "there is a potentially long gap between accepting principles and applying practice."

The UN Security Council is meanwhile torn between two extremes. Arab countries want a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire, while the US, Britain, and France (all permanent, veto-wielding Council members) "are pushing for a weaker statement welcoming the Franco-Egyptian initiative."

On Thursday, January 8, three rockets were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel. Hezbollah has maintained that they were not responsible for the attack and warned Israel not to use it as a pretext for opening a second front. So far it appears to me that Israel will not do so. And they should not do so. The Gaza offensive is terrible enough, and the last time Israel attacked Lebanon (in 2006), it did much to solidify Hezbollah's position there.

Jeffrey Goldberg shares a smart idea for Israel: "Why not erect a massive tent hospital in Sderot, staff it with Israeli army doctors, and treat the Palestinian wounded there?" It would be great morally and politically, so it's probably not going to happen.

For more: The BBC, per usual, has excellent reporting of the conflict. Particularly helpful is their timeline of the assault, which can be found here.